Jump to content

Sandy


Recommended Posts

HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012

500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO

THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK

HARBOR...

...WILL BRING COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...33.4N 71.3W

ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SURF CITY

NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF

THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.

THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...

THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS

OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY

AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO

MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND

SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN

ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR

THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND

THEN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE

MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION

WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT

A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS.  SANDY IS

EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY

REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 60

MPH...96 KM/H...AND A STATION AT DUCK NORTH CAROLINA 47 MPH...76

KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H. A BUOY NEAR THE MOUTH OF

THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...

83 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL

NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE

EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER

TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY

MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE

AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE

FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING

DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH

TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT

SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT

ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT

CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS

BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT

MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE

AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER

LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND

EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...

ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.

FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER

SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION

SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR

NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8

INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED

OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS

OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE

NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE

MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN

THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...

WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE

NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH

THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO

THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 143
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • River19

    7

  • fuess

    6

  • Bryan Lee

    5

  • henryrski

    4

interesting reading..

link

Wow! 5 feet of snow in w. Virginia. I hope all of these predictions are false! I've been blowing it off as hype but I might need to rethink that. Millions of power outages for maybe weeks. Holy Shiite!

Be safe everyone.

Tnwncc

Link to post
Share on other sites
2:47 am and not doing much in northwest NJ yet. Spent yesterday preparing for tbe storm. There were about 250 people on line at 7am at Lowes to try and buy a generator. Talk about insanity! I'm supposed to go into work at 6pm tonight right during the worst of it. Might make for an interesting 5 mile ride!
Link to post
Share on other sites
Hope you guys all get through the big storm as well as we got through our Tsunami last night. Best wishes, keep safe and much Aloha!
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm about 7miles inland as the crow flies given my proximity to PVD RI and right now, I've had stronger farts than the winds at my place.  That baing said I expect it to pick up.

The weather channel is going apeshite over the fact that there are 35-40mph winds from NC to Boston.....35-40 is a cakewalk and it would be great if it only tops off in the 60mph range.....

Hatteras already go about 8" of rain........yikes.

I'll take the windy side over the rainy side, the Irene flooding was enough for a while.  The Snow in WV is nutts.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Well in a short time I head off to work and it is expected I will not be back home for 2-3 days.  See you all on the other side stay safe and remember dont touch any downed powerlines they may not be dead
Link to post
Share on other sites

Raining with good gusts here in Philly.  Not as bad as i thought, but we are not out of the woods yet.  My dad and sister evacuated from NJ.  Have house guests for a few days!

It is good to have them, it will be better when they leave! :D

Link to post
Share on other sites
PartridgeCartridge

We are just coming off the high tide. Things are pretty bad around here. Many fine and very expensive homes have several feet of green seawater in the first floor.

The wind is not too bad yet but I did have a huge limb snap off my front maple and miss the house by a foot or so about a half hour ago. It landed with a resounding thump outside of my office window.

Tonight's high tide and the following high in the morning will, no doubt, be devastating to many properties just three blocks from me.

The frightening thing is that I might also be facing that wall of seawater come sundown.

My elevation is only a few feet higher than those homes already flooded.

I am very anxious and upset and angry and, quite frankly, a bit frightened by the thought of it.

I hate feeling helpless and powerless to do anything.

I can only hope for the best.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Pretty windy and rainy here right now. My boiler room is starting to take water. Submersible pump is set to run. Scariest thing is the dead tree in the lot next to us. Hope if it falls it falls away from the house. Dave.. You will be in my thoughts and prayers tonight.
Link to post
Share on other sites
Stay safe Dave.....

Yes, don't take any chances, can't change anything by being there. Praying your impacts are minimal.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Wife sat through the storm in NC while I was in the Alleghany NF in Pa. Last year I was in Michigan when Irene blew every tree on the property down. Wife dealt with the repair crews.

Wife is fine, water came up over the bulkhead and she took a dinghy off its platform so it wouldn't float away. Threw her back out dragging the inflateable up to tie off to the deck. Don't know what kind of welcome I'll get when I get back.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...