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Alaskan Swamp Collie

New vehicle timing

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Alaskan Swamp Collie

Okay, we planned on picking up a newer vehicle this year. Usually we find a couple of year old lease return with low mileage. With the present environment we have heard that leasing companies are not taking vehicles back. I assume that they will have to eventually. What is the train of thought, are prices going to get cheaper the longer this virus goes on, or is manufacturing so far down that car prices are going up?

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Big Al

I don't think anybody knows what things are going to look like after this siege on the US economy.  My guess new down, used up.

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Zoli 16ga.

My guess is new car prices will go down to reduce current unsold inventory, and open up space for when the factories  fire back up. Probably with 0% financing to boot. 

 

 

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Brad Eden
1 hour ago, Alaskan Swamp Collie said:

Okay, we planned on picking up a newer vehicle this year. Usually we find a couple of year old lease return with low mileage. With the present environment we have heard that leasing companies are not taking vehicles back. I assume that they will have to eventually. What is the train of thought, are prices going to get cheaper the longer this virus goes on, or is manufacturing so far down that car prices are going up?


That’s exactly my situation including plans on buying a low mileage trade in lease like I did with my current truck. I hadn’t heard about leases not being returned. I have noticed few if any new low mileage lease trade ins on my local Toyota website. But those on the website are gathering dust right now so the timing might be right for any on the lots.

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WPG Gizmo

Look at the ads on TV currently anywhere from 90 days to 6 month deferred payment 0% interest on new vehicles NO one is going to dealerships right now they are even offering buy it online and they will deliver it to your house.  When everything opens back up vehicle manufacturers are going to need time to play catch up.  I think that right now dealerships are willing to make deals if they are not moving inventory who knows what will happen in a few weeks. 

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Lurch

Leases aren't getting returned, but probably not getting a ton of miles on them in the meantime either.

with gas prices the way they are, you won't be paying a premium for hybrids, I'm guessing.

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Brad Eden

Googled it...wow, auto dealerships are refusing to take back leased vehicles when lease is expired. Not that people aren’t trying to return vehicles.  Some dealerships are giving extensions or demanding customers renew. It’s to do with sales departments etc being closed. It’s a bit of a cluster. Looks like  I’ll have to keep my 208k jalopy on the road for a lot longer than expected. I will never but a new vehicle again (too high a monthly payment for me in semi- retirement, and state excise tax and devaluation as soon as you drive off lot), so low mileage trad-in lease or private sale are my options.

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Lurch
6 minutes ago, Brad Eden said:

Googled it...wow, auto dealerships are refusing to take back leased vehicles when lease is expired. Not that people aren’t trying to return vehicles.  Some dealerships are giving extensions or demanding customers renew. It’s to do with sales departments etc being closed. 

 

At least in Hoosierville, they're deemed "essential" and are still open

 

 

esential.JPG

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Chief Paduke

Stock analysts for the auto leasing companies are expecting a glut of lease returns and falling resale prices of 10 to 20 percent. 

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apachecadillac
24 minutes ago, Chief Paduke said:

Stock analysts for the auto leasing companies are expecting a glut of lease returns and falling resale prices of 10 to 20 percent. 

 

If the analysts are predicting that, they're getting guidance for the finance guys inside the leasing companies to the effect that previously forecast  residuals are too high.  That's about as close to expert opinion that you'll get that used vehicle prices will go down in the aftermath of all this.  Unless the leasing companies are sandbagging.  

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jeff88

My view is that it is a buyers market.  While I've often written in here my preference is for a 2 to 3 YO CPO purchased outright, if there was a ride out there I needed or wanted to buy this year, why not just make an offer?  On a ride that might sticker at say, $40K, I'd offer $28K.  Dealers are desperate right now.  Moving anything off the lot is win.  In other words, offer the price you would if the same ride was 2 years old.  And if they say, no, who cares.  Go to the next dealer.  BTW, banks are also desperate to make loans too.

 

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max2

If I were in the market for a new car right now I would be looking .I would think some real good deals could be made on trades or just regular folks trying to get out of their current vehicles on the private market. Dealerships make more on traded in vehicles then they do on new . As far as purchasing a turned in lease I have always been leery of this .My thoughts are do the folks who lease the vehicle you are now purchasing really care about the way they treat them ?   

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Brad Eden
44 minutes ago, max2 said:

... . As far as purchasing a turned in lease I have always been leery of this .My thoughts are do the folks who lease the vehicle you are now purchasing treally care about the way they treat them ?   

I think they do. I am MUCH more comfortable with a low mileage trade in lease than a low mileage private sale. The Lease was turned back in after the lease was up, or for a reason, where private sales with low mileage make me very leery. Leased vehicles are inspected, and go through the check rigors at the dealership before being out in the market, they are typically very clean, well maintained and serviced before being put on the market...at established dealerships. 

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Mike da Carpenter
23 minutes ago, Brad Eden said:

I think they do. I am MUCH more comfortable with a low mileage trade in lease than a low mileage private sale. The Lease was turned back in after the lease was up, or for a reason, where private sales with low mileage make me very leery. Leased vehicles are inspected, and go through the check rigors at the dealership before being out in the market, they are typically very clean, well maintained and serviced before being put on the market...at established dealerships. 


Another bonus is they now give you a few oil changes, so at least they should have that service documented.  I know quite a few people who wouldn’t spend a dime on maintaining a lease when they first started doing leases.  They treated them as though they were Enterprise rentals.

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caleb

There's noise about Cash for Clunkers 2.0: https://www.barrons.com/articles/get-ready-for-mega-cash-for-clunkers-morgan-stanleys-adam-jonas-says-51587295800

 

Quote

These are numbers more for discussion: a $5,000 coupon to scrap a car subject to a variety of criteria, including U.S. local content percentages, call it 60% U.S. content. So there’s an American domestic angle that will of course include Japanese and Korean cars produced in the U.S. There may be some household income limitations and then limitations on the kind of vehicle you can scrap, and then how much you can buy. It might have a $60,000 maximum price limitation. It’s going to be designed, we think, to support lower and middle income classes to get bipartisan support.

 

BTW, not to push the political edges, but I totally oppose the idea.  It's a bailout for the auto industry under another name, and it harms the genuinely poor by jacking up used vehicle prices.  But I digress.

 

Thought anyone looking at a vehicle right now might be interested.

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